Your logic and analysis jumps around like a cat chasing a laser pointer. I'll make only one comment here: "risk of a major civil war?" WTF dude. What do you think 2014 to 2022 was? The Minsk agreement was signed by Russia and Ukraine to end the civil war, but as we have seen from direct statements from Ukraine and Germany, they never planned to implement Minsk - meaning in plain term that Ukraine and the west never wanted to end the civil war peacefully.

So to come back now and say Russia is at fault is straight up historical revisionism. The US ambassador to Russia and current US CIA director William Burns explicitly stated in 2008 in the context of the US stating that Ukraine should join NATO, that exactly the current situation would occur: Ukraine is a divided nation and forcing it to choose NATO would lead to a civil war and Russia would be pressured internally to support the large Russian leaning population in the East.

That is exactly what is happening. Adding more weapons to a war NEVER leads more quickly to peace. Never has, never will.

[edit] @Chris Snow: On Medium there is nothing more cowardly than writing a response wherein you ask questions, then block the person (me) to whom you directed the questions. It really shows how weak YOU feel your arguments are, that you block someone in that context. How afraid of my answers are you?

I’ve lived in Europe nearly 30 years. I have friends who are now refugees from Ukraine. It is a beautiful country with a rich history. I’ve traveled some of the world, but almost all of Europe, living /staying in multiple countries for extended periods. I work a lot in Eastern Europe, in multiple countries on the border to Ukraine. My in-laws are all Czech (in Czechia) with business and personal experience in Ukraine as well. So your opinion that somehow I’m looking at this from a distance in the US is as flawed as your analysis.

My personal feelings for the average Ukrainian don’t change the fact that Ukraine is being used as a cat’s paw by the US. The country is being destroyed by Russia. At least a dozen high level (e.g. SoS, Senators) US politicians have ever more explicitly stated since 2008 that the US needs to “fix” the problem of Russian integration with Europe, and specifically gas deliveries to Europe. 2019 Rand report. Graham, McCain and Klobushar in 2016 in Urkraine. Adam Schiff in 2020. Graham 2022. US politicians explicitly state this is a proxy war where “we will fight to the last Ukrainian” to weaken Russia. War Crimes much?

Although I live in Europe nearl 30 years, I am still a US citizen. Without MY tax money, Ukraine loses the war and ceases to exist as a country. In no democracy can it claimed that I MUST give money to Ukraine to fight Russia. It is still MY money. Not yours Mr. “I’m European and your not.” Not Ukraine’s. I want peace. You want to defeat Russia? I guaran-fucking-tee you that if you get to the front the Ukrainians will let you fight. Off you go. Oh, wait, now you’re not such a big fan of war anymore?

Chicken hawks come in all shapes and sizes. I’m not claiming to be some brave hero, but history shows exactly what I’ve written multiple times: Adding more weapons to a war zone NEVER leads sooner to peace.