With all due respect, just because you say it, doesn’t make it true. Nor is the situation “a universally accepted fact.” I’m also not saying that whatever I say is true. I’m just trying to be as objective as possible, and accept that international law is not my area of expertise. Since the start of the war I’ve read a lot about it, but three months of regular reading doesn’t make me an expert.
Crimea held a referendum, left Ukraine and joined the Russian Federation. As far as I understand Ukrainian law, that was legal — if disputed by people who disagreed with the outcome. The two Donbas Oblasts tried to secede, but this was (to my understanding) blocked illegally by Ukraine (under Ukraine law) and they were not recognized by other countries as independent until Russia did so as part of their justification for the invasion.
Again, I know very little about Ukraine law. In comparing with the US, when the southern states seceded in the 1860s, it was not black and white if it was legal for them to do so. The US legal wording was not 100% clear. In any case, the North won the war which settled the issue. Not many people know that the laws were changed after the war to make it clear that once in the US, a state cannot secede legally. My understanding is that the situation in Ukraine is similar. Whoever wins the war will have the most say in what was and will be legal going forward.
Right now it looks like Russia will win. Crimea will stay a part of Russia. What will happen to the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine is unclear.
Of course Ukraine wants all its territory back. In my opinion, Ukraine’s mistake was the same as the mistake made by the Shah of Iran, Manuel Noriega, Fernando Marcos, and Saddam Hussein (to name a few): To believe that if you are a puppet of the US, that the US will come to back you up militarily.
Geopolitics is like life. It isn’t fair. I’m 188 and 86 kg. If I box against a guy of Tyson Fury’s size, no matter how good I am, I’m probably going to lose unless I get very lucky. Threatening Tyson Fury or his family in that situation would be really, really stupid and provocative. It may be technically illegal (again, a question for lawyers) if Tyson hits me first, but I shouldn’t be surprised if he does, nor should I expect to win.
Ukraine killing ethnic Russians who don’t accept the 2014 coup government, trying to join an aggressive military alliance (NATO), and saying you want to build nuclear weapons on the border of Russia (to name three) are super provocative, agressive actions towards Russia. If Russia hits first it may be technically legal (a question for lawyers), but Ukraine should not have been surprised, nor should they expect to win.
