Who is going to do that kicking, Max? That map you show from June 2022 to November 2023 tells only one part of the story. Ukraine needs well-armed soldiers to do that kicking. They don't have them.
At the start of Russia's invasion, Ukraine had 600-800k** soldier. Russia had 100-200k** in their invasion. Russia now has about 600k** and Ukraine has 400-600k**. ** All numbers are estimates averages of what I've read from various western sources (i.e. we don't know for sure).
One thing we do know pretty much for sure (multiple independent sources) is that Ukraine's average soldier is now 43 years old. Russia's army is growing and is getting steadily better equipped, trained and rested.
The attrition war that Russia has been waging since fall of 2022 is about men and material, not land.
Even if Raytheon and the other US MIC could be convinced to make more weapons and shells, that wind-up time would be measured in months and years, not days and weeks. Russia is already ahead and slowly pulling away in that race.
Look at the map. The distance from Lviv to the front is far longer than from Russia to the front. Not to mention from Poland, Germany, France, the UK or the US. Russia is slowly winning the logistics battle.
Russia's best bet to win is following what Obama said in 2016, "Russia will always have escalatory dominance in Ukraine."
At some point Ukraine's army will break down. One could argue that point is coming now as ammo from the west runs out at the bottom of the logistics chain, and Zelenskyy and co. battle for control at the top.
The ground advances of Russia have been VERY slow the last year, but they are nearly constant (of course Russia loses ground some places!) and slowly accelerating.
The best thing that Zelenskyy could do for Ukraine is to go back to the negotiating table now while Ukraine can still put up a credible defense. Otherwise, IMO, every month the war goes on Zelenskyy's position gets worse, while more people die.
I have not watched all of Putin's interview by Tucker Carlson, but I have watched clips. Putin says he's ready to negotiate. Call his bluff. Make Putin put up or be exposed as the one who wants war.
Zelenskyy needs to be realistic. As you cogently write, you'd have to be a five-year-old to think Russia is going to walk away from the territory they've won just to sign a peace agreement. Russia is winning right now. Slowly, by small degrees, but also for many months. Negotiate open-eyed from that position and Zelenskyy and some part of Ukraine will survive.
Unfortunately, the way things are going it is questionable if either Zelenskyy or a viable Ukrainian state will survive. That would be a horror the millions of innocent Ukrainians still alive, and an unforced error handing Russia more power.
