When Turkstream starts delivering Russian gas, things will get really dicey in the Black Sea.

Tukiye has been moving back and forth between the West and the East (let's call it BRICS now). They are tending more towards BRICS since the EU let it slip one too many times that the EU promises to admit Turkiye will NEVER come to pass. Germany doesn't want another country in the EU of the size and potential power of themselves.

Turkstream will be an "end around" Ukraine for Russian gas and a needed stabilizing revenue stream for Turkiye's suffering economy. That will push Tukiye in the direction of BRICS. That will also alarm NATO (meaning the US).

That is when the situation between Turkiye and the West will come to a head.