Western estimates is that Russia is pulling back with 90% of it's men and equipment while Ukraine is losing 5 or 6:1 to gain that ground. That is a losing offensive unless Ukraine is about to get a huge influx of men and equipment.
The opposite is what we are expecting, again from western sources. Russia has called up 300,000 additional troops (although reports vary as to how many and where will actually be involved in/near Ukraine). That would lead an objective observer to think that it would be prudent to withhold judgement on the recent Ukraine offensives for a few weeks.
In the meantime, Russia taking out infrastructure in a hostile nation that is itself committing acts of terrorism against Russia (car bombing of civilians, suicide truck bombers) is a question for lawyers at The Hague. It is definitely not black and white.
There is no doubt that Russia had massive success from Feb-September, and also no doubt Ukraine has taken back a bunch of territory since then. Of course Russia is going to change tactics while reorganizing against a more resilient than expected foe. It would be stupid not to.
Three final points: 1) The nuclear doctrine of Russia is clear A) only in retaliation, B) only in the case that the Russian state is in danger of being destroyed. Neither of those would apply to tactical nukes in a battle in Ukraine.
2) The contstant refrain that Russia is running out of missiles is reaching Baghdad Bob levels. According to the West, Russia has been running out of precision armaments since they showcased their hypersonic missiles in early May, 2 1/2 months into the war. When Russia stops firing so many missiles and never restarts - like Ukraine has been for many months - then we'll have more cause to believe they are running out. So far, that has not happened.
3) Noone has confirmed that the drones being used by Russia are from Iran. By now if they were, foresnic evidence could be provided. Remember how everyone claimed it was Russia who bombed the train station in Kramatorsk? Plenty of sites still list it as confirmed. Except that the forensic evidence of the actual missile showed: a) angle of flight says it came from Ukrainian forces b) type of missile is used currently by Ukraine but not for 30 years by Russia, c) the serial number on part of the missile recovered matched the known serial numbers of missiles in Ukraine's stock prior to the war.
