Well, you skipped a couple of important steps along the way, John.
1) Russia supports a violent coup in Mexico. Elected Russian officials are on the ground in Mexico city egging on the coup .
The democratically elected AMLO is replaced by a pro-Russian president. This is done unconstitutionally.
Later a leaked audio recording from 2 months before the coup has Medvedev (or someone near his level) discussing exactly which Mexican politicians should be installed after the coup. Medvedev is heard saying, "Fuck Latin America" regarding their concerns for the new government.
2) Immediately after the coup, two federal counties of Mexico bordering the US, let's say Tamaulipas (with Matamoros and Nuevo Laredo right across the border from Brownsville and Laredo, Texas) and Baja California with Tijuana right across the border from San Diego, California, vote to leave Mexico and join the US. The US rejects this and says they should stay part of Mexico.
Let's also say these states have a lot more Americans than they do in reality, because up until 1991, Mexico was part of the greater US, and when the greater US broke up, those two states became part of Mexico.
These two states are disappointed, because a third state, where the US has had a military base for the last 300 years, has been annexed by the US after a referendum was held and the people of, let's say Yucatan, voted to leave Mexico and join the US.
The two states declare their independence from Mexico, but no countries recognize them as independent states.
3) Immediately after the coup, Mexico outlaws English and starts rounding up American leaning citizens. In one case a group of 42 American supporting Mexicans are trapped in a trade center building where they are hiding from an armed mob. The American leaning Mexicans are burned to death. The Mexican government refuses to investigate the horrific crime.
4) Mexico and the two states start armed conflict. In the first year over 10,000 people are killed. A majority are American leaning Mexicans.
5) The year of the coup, US brokers a peace plan with Mexico, but it falls through. The following year the US and Mexico sign a new peace plan, let's call it Tijuana II. The two states would get some autonomy, but remain part of Mexico. There would be a cease fire on both sides.
6) Mexico refuses to implement Tijuana II. Instead, Mexico joins a pro-Russian military alliance. Russia sends billions of dollars of weapons to Mexico. Russia builds military bases in Mexico. Russia trains Mexican fighters on their new Russian weapons, about a battalion per month. Russia trains the Mexicans specifically on how to counter US weapons and tactics. Russian FSB stations are opened up all over Mexico. Russian biolabs, I think 38 of them, are opened up in Mexico. Mexico changes their constitution to state that it is a national goal of Mexico to join the Russian Federation. Sitting Russian duma members fly often to Mexico to promise weapons and support fighting the separatists. The Russians refer to all the separatists as "the Americans."
7) Throughout this, the US provides some low level weapons and political support to the Mexican separatists, but will commit no troops or anything close to overt support.
8) Mexico integrates fanatic Nazi militias into the official Mexican army. These groups are brown-supremacists intent on wiping out the Americans. They hold great leverage around Mexico, as they use intimidation and violence to affect their will.
9) The US goes to the UN to try to get Tijuana II implemented. The Russians block all efforts at peace and negotiation.
10) After 8 years of Mexican civil war and 14000+ dead, about 80% on the American-leaning side, Biden goes again to Mexico to try to broker peace. Mexico rejects his plan out of hand, with Russia being very vocal about no deal with the gringos.
11) Mexico starts amassing troops on the borders to the two breakaway states, so the US does the same on our side of the border.
12) Mexico increases shelling by 500% on the breakaway states, while increasing the troops on the border to the breakaway states to over 100,000.
Then - and only then - does Biden recognize the independence of the two states and send troops into Mexico to keep the American-leaning Mexicans from being wiped out. America uses the same logic as the US used in former Yugoslavia and more recently Kosovo to bomb Mexico and recognize the new states.
The situation looks a little different when the relevant details are added, eh, John?
I still don't think it was right for the US to invade Mexico - or Russia invade Ukraine, but it is VERY hard to find another solution that doesn't end up with the majority of the people in the breakaway states dead or displaced if they don't.
