Time will tell, but I think your analysis of who will be sucessful this winter is flawed.

I do not claim to know Russia's supply of winter clothing. That being said, Russia's supply of armaments has not slowed, while Ukraine's has. Significantly. Looking at LiveUAmap (a Ukrainian source), one sees that the Russians are constantly shelling, firing missiles, and attacking.

It is true that Russia pulled out of Kherson. A huge political defeat for Russia. It is not true that Ukraine liberated Kherson. Ukraine has yet to win a military battle in/around Kherson.

Russia has been concentrating on knocking out Ukraine's logistics / supply chain infrastructure, while they integrate 300,000+ reservists into their forces.

I'd say it does not look good for Ukraine. I wish both sides would negotiate now and save lives.