This is not unlike what is happening in Ukraine since the end of 2022. The West planned a knockout blow to Russia via economic sanctions in the spring of 2022. It almost worked.

Since then, Russia has turned the war into one of attrition, that they are slowly winning.

As in operation Barbarossa, Ukraine has supply lines from the US (!), UK, Western Europe, through Poland and then 1000 km to the front. Russia has long internal distances to travel, no doubt, but from the border of Russia to the front is very short compared to the NATO supply lines. Over time this is one of the (I would not say "the") deciding factors in tipping the balance towards Russia.