This is a Ukrainian run web-site showing the war activity since the Russia's invasion. The first link below shows the front as of 1 Jan 2023:
https://liveuamap.com/en/time/01.01.2023
Take a screen capture, then reload the page with the current front lines:
It is clear that since Ukraine's very impressive Fall 2022 counter offensive the war changed from a maneuver war to an attrition war.
Using this same page and the "time" function - again note ALL data on this page comes from the Ukrainian military - you can see the prevalence of red rifle icons (Russian attacks) compared to blue rifle icons (Ukrainian attacks). This directly belies your statement that Russia is running out of armor and artillery.
Russia has recovered economically from 2022. It is back to 2021 levels of income from oil and gas, just to different customers. See the relevant IMF (a western group) reports for details. Russia has been heavily sanctioned since 2014. The 2022 sanctions were VERY tough, but Russia had prepared well (better than I thought, that is for sure!), particularly having an alternative to SWIFT.
Mediazona and Medusa have done the best reporting (IMO) on both Russian and Ukrainian casualties (neither country provides official death tolls). Below is a link to a recent article mostly about estimated Russian losses:
https://en.zona.media/article/2024/02/24/75k
What is a fact is that Russia had (pre-invasion) 3x as many people as Ukraine. Here in Europe we know first hand that huge numbers of Ukrainians fled the country and are now here in the EU as refugees. Russia has also had people leave, but nothing close to Ukraine. Meaning all things being equal Russia can lose 3x as many soldiers and still win.
All things are not equal though, because Russia is destroying Ukraine at a rate 4-10x greater than Ukraine is destroying Russia.
US General Mark Milley (at the time chairman of the joint chiefs of staff) stated at the end of Ukraine's great 2022 counter offensive that right then was the time for Ukraine to negotiate, because it was never going to be in a better position. I believed he was correct then, and time has supported his claim.
This war is going to end either with an "Istanbul +" agreement, or a collapse of Ukraine back to a rump state with the remaining western oblasts. The longer Ukraine waits, the smaller that rump state will be. It is a horrible situation that was completely avoidable. Ukraine is a beautiful country with some really wonderful people.
