Russian sources say Russia is winning. Western sources say Ukraine is winning.
When you look at maps and watch the western news for some weeks, you can see more of the truth. Ukraine has won some clear tactical victories, particularly aroudn Kyiv early on, then around Kharkiv in September. Kherson is no military victory for Ukraine, clearly a major political defeat for Russia. Russia is winning strategically.
I fully believe Russia underestimated the west's support of Ukraine. That lead to early losses like around Kviv. A new head of command and clear directives from the top have lead to an increased war of attrition that Russia was winning before Surovikin, is winning more now, and is well positioned to increased strategic victories going forward.
The link below is to a map produced by Ukraine based on the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Ukraine. Take a look once a day. Do you see Ukraine attacking, or Russia attacking and Ukraine defending? In the Donbass Russia - one of Russia's stated key goals - Russia slowly grinds forward.
This map doesn't always report on the continued destruction of Ukraines power grid.
This is the situation as Western weapons shipments have gotten less, not more, and Russian reinforcements have not yet entered the fighting.
The idea that Ukraine is poised to win does not match the maps produced by the Ukraine military of the situation on the ground.
