Playing "armchair nutrioninst" it looks to me like you're addicted to sugar and do not have a long term diet (noun, not verb!) that you can really live with.

IMHO (after decades of study and experience) you are setting yourself up to fail by having a ledger of sweets vs. exercise as the method to keep your weight under control. With time things will change on both sides of the ledger. i.e. you'll get older and your resting metabolism will drop, lowering your NEAT and requiring more regular exercise just to keep the same percentage of body fat.

My unasked for advice is to ween yourself off of sweets so that you are actually in balance between what you eat and what you do.