Oh, you know it is “a bluff,” do you? You have insight and control over the Russian government’s “rules” and decisions about when to launch nuclear weapons. Sure, buddy.
Maybe your immensre hubris is useful in your life, but I’d rather not gamble the ENTIRE HUMAN RACE on your conviction that Russia would never launch nuclear weapons. Your attitude is sociopathic.
“The best way to use history” according to whom? You? How about we look at what happened in Chechnya, Georgia, and/or Syria, all of which were Russia and Putin, and not the USSR and some other leader.
In all three of those wars, the US/West started and/or supported the wars, and Russia came in either sooner or later (Syria) and continued to escalate until in each case, the countries were decimated…and Russia won (although the US is illegally occupying 1/3 of Syria right now so that one is a win with an asterisk). That is the pattern that is being followed right now in Ukraine.
As in Syria, sociopaths who want WWIII (i.e. Hillary Clinton) are calling for a no-fly zone that will lead to a direct conflict between NATO and Russia, which NATO experts say has a greater than 50% chance of ending in a nuclear exchange and we all die. Barring that, expect a result as in the three examples from the last 20 years where Putin was in power in Russia.
The US is pouring weapons into Ukraine and helping Ukraine with logistics and IT. Russia is still advancing. I’m sure slower than they wanted / expected, but Russia is still advancing. Your wish-casting is at odds with the evidence on the ground.