My opinion is that Trónus's logic has already proven itself false. Ukraine recently and spectaularly won back about 10% of the land that Russia conquered from them. Something like 10,000 km2.

The Russians did not use a dirty bomb in a month-long retreat/strategic pullback (depending on which side's rhetoric you use).

To claim that if it happens now it must be the Russians, after it not being the Russians for the last 5+ weeks of retreat is faulty logic and analysis, in my opinion.