Maybe?

I don't believe Russia can win against the U.S./Europe in a conventional war. Russia has needed 3 years to take 4 oblasts, which together with Crimea are about 22% of Ukraine. At that pace they need another 12 years just to take all of Ukraine.

Yes it is true that Russia has held back massively, but it is also true that NATO troops are fighting only from the rear (training, targeting, etc.) and not on the front lines.

Russian missile technology is better than the West's but if we start lobbing missiles internationally, I think we're all toast pretty quickly anyways, so it is a moot point.

More important than the last paragraph, there is zero evidence that Putin wants to invade EU/NATO countries. Prior to the Ukraine coup Russia was totally happy making serious bank selling oil and gas to Europe. It makes no economic sense for Russia to invade and destroy their own customer base.

The super-sad irony is that economic interdependence was the main point of the EU. Make everyone friendly via commerce so no one wants to go to war.

The only country really unhappy with that arrangement was the US. That is one of two main reasons why we are where we are in Ukraine.

I don't see how the US can defeat Russia in Ukraine. Slow them down? For sure. We've been doing that for 3 years. The US doesn't have any more weapons to send that will make a difference. It is a political non-starter to send US combat soldiers.

Russia's military industrial base is built to deliver lower quality high tech, but fully adequate low tech weapons and ammo at massively higher rates than the combined Western output. In this situation, quantity is also a quality.

So we are short weapons, ammo, and soldiers. The US already tried and failed to crush Russia economically. Close, but no cigar as the old saying goes.

I think Russia is going to continue to grind Ukraine down until they get the terms they want. The price to stop them is WWIII, and the West (except the maniacs in the UK) have already stated that Ukraine is not worth WWIII.

I don't see any flaws in my logic. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.