I've been working in Europe in oil and gas for 30+ years. In the first couple of months of the war, I too thought that the sanctions would crush Russia. But I quickly learned that European business is not behind the war, regardless of what European political and business leaders say.

Politically it is not possible to NOT be pro-Ukraine/pro-NATO. High level business leaders are by definition political actors. They must be seen supporting their NATO obligations.

On the ground in Europe the picture is 180° different. No one at oil and gas conferences talks about sanctions or even climate change goals. Everyone knows it is just words, and words are wind (h/t George Martin).

The Greeks control 27% of the global oil tanker market. No way the Greeks were going to put themselves out of business for US sanctions - because everyone knows but few say directly that the sanctions only benefit the US.

The farther south and particularly east you go, the more Russian sympathies you will find. People in Eastern Europe, particularly those at or near retirement remember that average workers had a steady life under Soviet rule. Not rich, but socialism brought social goods. Capitalism has brought them the hard reality that they're on their own with their tiny pensions.

India has a long memory and they are not stupid. India knows it was not Russia that colonized and starved them. It was the UK. The US took over the role of world Empire after the UK. The UK is now the pit bull of the US.

India can see how the US is lining up for confrontation with China, if they can get past Russia. India is next on the list, and they surely know this.

Purely in domestic US politics, it is only a couple of years ago that Tulsi Gabbard was demonized and vilified for her alleged close ties to Modi. At the time, Gabbard was a Democrat and colleague of Biden.

Going back decades, Biden's record as a racist is very clear.

I also think that any deals and friendly gestures from India towards the US are only surface level.