I've been negotiating and writing contracts for about 30 years. I've been fooled by dishonest actors and learned from those experiences. One of my key thoughts in negotiations is, "If they say it, they should have no problem putting it in writing. If they do, they are not honest actors." Experience has shown that whenever someone says X but won't sign off on X, they ALWAYS later come back to try and screw us on X. Without exception.

The fact that prior to Russia's invasion both the US AND Zelenskyy would not put in writing that Ukraine would not join NATO - even after Russia's years of saying that is a red line - says to me that NATO membership for Ukraine was just a matter of time.

The 25 years of prior NATO expansion after promising verbally - but not signing it in a treaty - to NOT expand past former East Germany, only convinces me more that Ukraine in NATO was probably already being discussed in secret right up to when Russia invaded.