Interesting take. I don't agree with all of your conclusions, but I appreciate your analysis.

It is way too early to claim "the decision [to invade] has permanently weakened Russia at all levels." I've been self-employed for 28 years. I've also divorced and remarried. If you looked at my business or my personal life right after cutting ties to a large but difficult customer, or just after my divorce, you might make a staement like, "the decision to get divorced [busines or personal] has permanently weakened Jack at all levels.

I got divorced 21 years ago, and had a huge business breakup 19 years ago. It took time to rebuild, but both my business and my personal life are much stronger and better than they were when I was in those flawed relationships. Only time will tell if Russia's "divorce" from the West will be better or worse for them.