In the real world, what happened is (again) the US started a war for market reasons. Last week the UK signed a major deal to buy LNG from the US at 3x the price they were previously buying it from Russia.

Longer term I hope everyone uses renewables. In the short term, the EU, particularly the energy-intensive German chemicals industry, will be deindustrialized. Those jobs and plants will go where? Oh, just by coincidence to the US.

So short term the US wins this round. Longer term it looks more likely the EU will have to start the break from the US to survive. BRICS+ will thrive in short-, mid-, and long-term, to the detriment of both the US and the EU.

Since the US provoked the war in Ukraine, maybe the better headline would be that the war will most likely backfire on the US empire in a big way.

Russia is doing quite well after some errors in the first months of the war, both financially and militarily. The EU and NATO, not so much.