In 1999, the apartment bombs in Chechnya that brought Putin to power could have been (IMO) false flag attacks. Putin was not in power yet. They were not nuclear (dirty bombs). It was a Russian federation civil war (no NATO/West involvement). Most importantly, it was used to get Russia to support Putin to win the war.

In 2022 Ukraine, the situation is VERY different. Putin is already in power. Russia is 70%+ in favor of the war. Putin has an ~80% approval rating. Despite recent setbacks in September, Russia is again on the offensive in late October, particularly as reinforcements join the fight. Russia has in the last weeks knocked out 40+% of Ukraine's power supply.

The last thing Russia wants is more support for Ukraine from the West.

Ukraine did great in September. Much better than I expected. They are back on defense now. The west is sending fewer weapons and fewer munitions. With the increasing loss of power and infrastructure, Ukrainian logisitics is getting much harder.

Ukraine's best chance to win has ALWAYS been to get greater support from NATO / the US or in a best case scenario for Ukraine, US / NATO boots on the ground to support Ukraine troops.

So, going back to compare with your example from Chechnya in 1999, it is clear that Ukraine has the far better reason to use a false flag against Russia, than for Russia to use it against Ukraine.

Let's game this out:

- Russia sets off a false flag dirty bomb and blames Ukraine. Does the West turn against Ukraine and start supporting Russia? I say no.

- Ukraine sets off false flag dirty bomb and blames Russia. Does the West get more involved, maybe directly involved in fighting Russia? I say yes.

Looking at both those scenarios objectively, who has more to lose if they commit a false flag dirty bomb attack and it doesn't work? Who has more to gain if they commit a false flag dirty bomb attack and it does work? In both cases, the answer is Ukraine.

Does that mean Russia wouldn't do it? I certainly wouldn't rule it out. But the odds are definitely against Russia doing it rather than Ukraine.