I think your logic is sound. The actual Lahaina death toll would not look good for the government responsible for taking care of its citizens (that is what we elect them to do FFS). We have done our best to paint ourselves as the "good guy" in WWII. Firebombing Dresden, like dropping nukes on civilian targets in Japan, plays directly against that narrative.
The latest number I've seen of missing from Lahaina is 388. I expect that number is downplayed significantly, for the reason stated above.
Comparing Lahaina and the fire there to Dresden and the fire there is like comparing a beach bonfire to a factory filled with industrial furnaces. The percentage (not the actual number) of people who could escape from the Lahaina disaster is an order of magnitude higher than those who could escape Dresden.
Before you even get to the literal firestorm, you have smoke inhalation and asphyxiation. That is how most people die in a fire. If you've ever experienced a fire in an enclosed space like an apartment building, you understand it is a matter of minutes. If you don't get out to fresh air, you're going to die. If you're not on the ground floor and/or able to stay under the smoke, you're going to die.
If you look at pictures of Lahaina before and Dresden before, it is clear it is over and order of magnitude higher density of people in Dresden than in Lahaina.
Doing some quick math:
Lahaina: 100 bodies, 400 missing (probably higher).
Dresden: 20k bodies -> 80k missing -> 800k dead
Yes, those are some big assumptions. But ballpark calcs are easily over 500k.
One commenter uses before and after population of Dresden to come up with 250k. I think that logic is flawed. 1) he ignored refugees (as I think you noted), and 2) post war people move to cities to find work. The 250k difference implies the same people are living there after the war.
Anyway, it was a horrible act and your article is just another reminder why the US and Russia need to be talking seriously about ending the war in Ukraine. Yeah, the Ukrainians are doing the dying on the Western side, but without the US footing nearly the entire Ukrainian bill, the war would be over in a matter of weeks.
