I had almost this exact question asked of me last week by a guy at the gym. My answer was, "Yes. Fewer Ukrainians will die. I am fully convinced taht the result of negotiations at the end of this war will be nearly the same as Russia's demands before the war, which will be nearly the same as the Minsk II agreements that Ukraine signed seven years ago, with the exception of the Donbas being fully independent rather than part of Ukraine."

My friend didn't have much of an answer except to say that it was wrong. I agreed, but it is way better than destroying huge parts of the country, killing and displacing millions, to come to almost the same result.