I expect Russia to not respond about Kaliningrad until after the Ukraine war is settled (or more settled), unless the west sets up a real seige including air and water. Barring that this is an expensive inconvenience for Russia
So far we have severely underestimated how expensive this war is for us in the west. We also underestimated how resilient the Russian economy has become.
I heard for weeks that Russia would be crushed by the sanctions. They just earned a $100,000,000,000 on gas/oil sales in the last three months. A new record for them.
We've brought China closer to Russia. We've brought India much closer to Russia.
So far all we're doing is making money for the US MIC and Russia, while everyone else in the US, and everyone in the EU suffers.
When grandmothers in Hamburg start freezing to death this winter those sanctions are going to start looking much less politically sustainable.
I can see China and Russia reaching a deal with the African Union to deliver wheat and fertilizer, staving off the starvation that is coming already to that continent.
I can see a similar agreement to get wheat to the Middle East.
South America is already leaning towards Russia and away from the US: See the recent debacle of the "Summit of the Americas." The longer this war goes on, the more that will continue. Nicaragua just asked Russia to station troops there.
Oh, and Ukraine is losing the war. They are trying to retreat from Severodonetsk as I type.
Another year like the last four months, and it will be ~1 billion people in the US and EU + Jap/Aut/etc. vs. the other ~6 billion people on the planet. Who do you think is going to win there?