I don't claim to be a military expert, but this analysis appears to be in conflict with what is happening on the ground in Kherson, Bakhmut and around Kharkov.

The Ukrainian attacks in Kherson have not been succesful (so far). Their attempts to blow the dam on the Dnipro also not successful. Russia has pushed into Bakhmut directly and there is fierce fighting there. Russia is slowly pushing back around Kharkov where Ukraine made its most impressive gains over the last month.

All reports (western and pro-Russian) say that Ukraine paid a heavy toll in men and equipment to achieve their very impressive gains in territory over the last month. This leaves Ukraine overextended as Russia was.

The difference is that Russia gave ground to minimize their losses of men and material, and Russia is now getting a huge number/amount of reinforcements...and Ukraine is not. The colder weather will favor Russia's drone and artilery advantage due to the reduced amount of cover for Ukraine troops.