I don't agree with all your analysis fully, but 50 claps for the "reality check is in the mail."

Politics is all local. The EU is stuck right now with NATO and US overlords, but once the shooting stops anyone that thinks Europe is going to spend a huge premium FOREVER buying fracked LNG from the US rather than buying from Russia is deluded.

Germany didn't want Ukraine in NATO before the war. It is clear the US is willing to let everyone else bleed Russia dry, while profiting handsomely.

Short term Russia will achieve some important goals with this war. Crimea, water for Crimea, the Donbas and a land bridge. That is a huge gain.

I'm sure the Russians would have loved if Ukraine had rolled over, but anyone watching Ukraine for the last 8 years knew that wasn't going to happen. Russia didn't send troops enough to achieve that goal to start with. Conquer and occupy Kyiv (pop. 3 million) with 40k troops? Please.

Anyway, great comment from you.