I dispute 100% that #2 is palatable in Europe. It would take years for western and central Europe to find replacements for Russian gas, and that at huge initial costs and running costs.

How many people will die from lack of heat in the next two years without Russian gas? How many businesses will fail without Russian gas and oil, causing poverty, despair and deaths of despair? It would mean recession at least, maybe depression for the EU.

Thousands would die, Paul. Probably tens of thousands. EU economies would be devastated. Western and central European politicians know this, which is why #2 is REALLY #2 and is absolutely not palatable to the EU. The German Chancellor stated this already quite clearly.