I disagree with several of your conclusions but there is much speculation at this point, so there is no much point in debating.

I would only caution that we have no idea what the real number of dead are on each side. I've heard 100s of thousands on each side. I find that very hard to believe for multiple reasons.

As someone living in the EU and working in gas and oil for 30+ years I'll state with some authority that the training wheels aren't off here regarding gas and oil. We're just paying India, China and other 3rd parties a markup for getting "not Russian" (wink-wink) oil and gas.

If things continue on the ground as they curently are, in 3-4 months the situation will, I think, be much clearer.

I hope that doesn't happen. I hope there is a breakthrough on negotiations and a ceasefire so that the civilians in the war zone don't suffer anymore.