Great analysis and I agree with everything except your analogy at the end.

Here in Austria we have had waves of refugees from Libya, Afghanistan, Syria, and now Ukraine over the last 10+ years. It is not hard to understand why Europeans are tired of the US lead/provoked/extended wars and are looking for peace politicians.

We had Syrian refugees living in one of our flats for 3 years. Nice family. Traumatized young kids. They integrated, got better jobs and were able to move into a bigger, city-subsidized flat. That was 6 years ago. I really doubt they'll be in a hurry to go back to Syria.

I think the Syrian situation, like previously in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya is more like, "going from drowning in swimming pool to drowning in the ocean." The waves are bigger, the shore is farther, and there are a lot more unknown critters under the surface.